Non-stationary log-periodogram regression

We study asymptotic properties of the log-periodogram semiparametric estimate of the memory parameter d for non-stationary (d>=1/2) time series with Gaussian increments, extending the results of Robinson (1995) for stationary and invertible Gaussian processes. We generalize the definition of the memory parameter d for non-stationary processes in terms of the (successively) differentiated series. We obtain that the log-periodogram estimate is asymptotically normal for dE[1/2, 3/4) and still consistent for dE[1/2, 1). We show that with adequate data tapers, a modified estimate is consistent and asymptotically normal distributed for any d, including both non-stationary and non-invertible processes. The estimates are invariant to the presence of certain deterministic trends, without any need of estimation.Publicad

Gaussian semi-parametric estimation of fractional cointegration

We analyse consistent estimation of the memory parameters of a nonstationary fractionally cointegrated vector time series. Assuming that the cointegrating relationship has substantially less memory than the observed series, we show that a multi-variate Gaussian semi-parametric estimate, based on initial consistent estimates and possibly tapered observations, is asymptotically normal. The estimates of the memory parameters can rely either on original (for stationary errors) or on differenced residuals (for nonstationary errors) assuming only a convergence rate for a preliminary slope estimate. If this rate is fast enough, semi-parametric memory estimates are not affected by the use of residuals and retain the same asymptotic distribution as if the true cointegrating relationship were known. Only local conditions on the spectral densities around zero frequency for linear processes are assumed. We concentrate on a bivariate system but discuss multi-variate generalizations and show the performance of the estimates with simulated and real data.Publicad

Nonparametric frequency domain analysis of nonstationary multivariate time series

We analyse the properties of nonparametric spectral estimates when applied to long memory and trending nonstationary multiple time series. We show that they estimate consistently a generalized or pseudo-spectral density matrix at frequencies both close and away from the origin and we obtain the asymptotic distribution of the estimates. Using adequate data tapers this technique is consistent for observations with any degree of nonstationarity, including polynomial trends. We propose an estimate of the degree of fractional cointegration for possibly nonstationary series based on coherence estimates around zero frequency and analyse its finite sample properties in comparison with residual-based inference. We apply this new semiparametric estimate to an example vector time series.Publicad

Gaussian Semiparametric Estimation of Non-stationary Time Series

Generalizing the definition of the memory parameter d in terms of the differentiated series, we showed in Velasco (Non-stationary log-periodogram regression, Forthcoming J. Economet., 1997) that it is possible to estimate consistently the memory of non-stationary processes using methods designed for stationary long-range-dependent time series. In this paper we consider the Gaussian semiparametric estimate analysed by Robinson (Gaussian semiparametric estimation of long range dependence. Ann. Stat. 23 (1995), 1630–61) for stationary processes. Without a priori knowledge about the possible non-stationarity of the observed process, we obtain that this estimate is consistent for d E (-½, 1) and asymptotically normal for d E (-½,¾) under a similar set of assumptions to those in Robinson's paper. Tapering the observations, we can estimate any degree of non-stationarity, even in the presence of deterministic polynomial trends of time. The semiparametric efficiency of this estimate for stationary sequences also extends to the non-stationary framework.Publicad

Local Cross-validation for Spectrum Bandwidth Choice

We investigate an automatic method of determining a local bandwidth for non-parametric kernel spectral density estimates at a single frequency. This procedure is a modification of a cross-validation technique for global bandwidth choices, avoiding the computation of any pilot estimate based on initial bandwidths or on approximate parametric models. Only local conditions on the spectral density around the frequency of interest are assumed. We illustrate with a Monte Carlo study the performance in finite samples of the bandwidth estimates proposed.Publicad

Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis

^aThis article proposes a test for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) using dependence measures related to the characteristic function. The MDH typically has been tested using the sample autocorrelations or in the spectral domain using the periodogram. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent against uncorrelated non-martingales processes. Here, we generalize the spectral test of Durlauf (1991) for testing the MDH taking into account linear and nonlinear dependence. Our test considers dependence at all lags and is consistent against general pairwise nonparametric Pitman's local alternatives converging at the parametric rate n^(-1/2), with n the sample size. Furthermore, with our methodology there is no need to choose a lag order, to smooth the data or to formulate a parametric alternative. Our approach can be easily extended to specification testing of the conditional mean of possibly nonlinear models. The asymptotic null distribution of our test depends on the data generating process, so a bootstrap procedure is proposed and theoretically justified. Our bootstrap test is robust to higher order dependence, in particular to conditional heteroskedasticity. A Monte Carlo study examines the finite sample performance of our test and shows that it is more powerful than some competing tests. Finally, an application to the S and P 500 stock index and exchange rates highlights the merits of our approach

Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis

This article proposes a test for the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) using dependence measures related to the characteristic function. The MDH typically has been tested using the sample autocorrelations or in the spectral domain using the periodogram. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent against uncorrelated non-martingales processes. Here, we generalize the spectral test of Durlauf (1991) for testing the MDH taking into account linear and nonlinear dependence. Our test considers dependence at all lags and is consistent against general pairwise nonparametric Pitman's local alternatives converging at the parametric rate n-1/2, with n the sample size. Furthermore, with our methodology there is no need to choose a lag order, to smooth the data or to formulate a parametric alternative. Our approach could be extended to specification testing of the conditional mean of possibly nonlinear models. The asymptotic null distribution of our test depends on the data generating process, so a bootstrap procedure is proposed and theoretically justified. Our bootstrap test is robust to higher order dependence, in particular to conditional heteroskedasticity. A Monte Carlo study examines the finite sample performance of our test and shows that it is more powerful than some competing tests. Finally, an application to the S&P 500 stock index and exchange rates highlights the merits of our approach.Publicad

Testing the martingale difference hypothesis using integrated regression functions

An omnibus test for testing a generalized version of the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) is proposed. This generalized hypothesis includes the usual MDH, testing for conditional moments constancy such as conditional homoscedasticity (ARCH effects) or testing for directional predictability. A unified approach for dealing with all of these testing problems is proposed. These hypotheses are long standing problems in econometric time series analysis, and typically have been tested using the sample autocorrelations or in the spectral domain using the periodogram. Since these hypotheses cover also nonlinear predictability, tests based on those second order statistics are inconsistent against uncorrelated processes in the alternative hypothesis. In order to circumvent this problem pairwise integrated regression functions are introduced as measures of linear and nonlinear dependence. The proposed test does not require to chose a lag order depending on sample size, to smooth the data or to formulate a parametric alternative model. Moreover, the test is robust to higher order dependence, in particular to conditional heteroskedasticity. Under general dependence the asymptotic null distribution depends on the data generating process, so a bootstrap procedure is considered and a Monte Carlo study examines its finite sample performance. Then, the martingale and conditional heteroskedasticity properties of the Pound/Dollar exchange rate are investigated.Publicad

The Periodogram of fractional processes.

We analyse asymptotic properties of the discrete Fourier transform and the periodogram of time series obtained through (truncated) linear filtering of stationary processes. The class of filters contains the fractional differencing operator and its coefficients decay at an algebraic rate, implying long-range-dependent properties for the filtered processes when the degree of integration α is positive. These include fractional time series which are nonstationary for any value of the memory parameter (α ≠ 0) and possibly nonstationary trending (α ≥ 0.5). We consider both fractional differencing or integration of weakly dependent and long-memory stationary time series. The results obtained for the moments of the Fourier transform and the periodogram at Fourier frequencies in a degenerating band around the origin are weaker compared with the stationary nontruncated case for α > 0, but sufficient for the analysis of parametric and semiparametric memory estimates. They are applied to the study of the properties of the log-periodogram regression estimate of the memory parameter α for Gaussian processes, for which asymptotic normality could not be showed using previous results. However, only consistency can be showed for the trending cases, 0.5 ≤ αDiscrete Fourier transform; Long-range dependence; Long memory; Nonstationary series; Log-periodogram regression; Asymptotic normality; Primary: 62M15; Secondary: 62M10, 60G18;

Distribution-free tests of fractional cointegration

We propose tests of the null of spurious relationship against the alternative of fractional cointegration among the components of a vector of fractionally integrated time series. Our test statistics have an asymptotic chi-square distribution under the null and rely on generalized least squares–type of corrections that control for the short-run correlation of the weak dependent components of the fractionally integrated processes. We emphasize corrections based on nonparametric modelization of the innovations’ autocorrelation, relaxing important conditions that are standard in the literature and, in particular, being able to consider simultaneously (asymptotically) stationary or nonstationary processes. Relatively weak conditions on the corresponding short-run and memory parameter estimates are assumed. The new tests are consistent with a divergence rate that, in most of the cases, as we show in a simple situation, depends on the cointegration degree. Finite-sample properties of the tests are analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo experiment.Publicad